Agility Logistics Parks — Saudi development (Jeddah + ROSHN)
A build-to-core logistics real estate case: land already acquired and debt-funded, development spend phased over four years, income ramps as facilities go live, exit valued on a cap rate. This is the largest capital deployment in the group and the one behind the net-debt finding. Every input is illustrative. The public reference point ("about 2.5bn of spend for 1.1 to 1.2bn of developed value") has an unresolved currency and scope; do not quote it as a ratio.
NPV @ entity cost of capital
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IRR
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Yield on cost (stabilised)
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Developed value vs total cost
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Development margin
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value created ÷ cost
Peak funding
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Payback
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Exit value share of PV
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how much is the cap rate
Probability-weighted NPV
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Inputs — capital and site
Inputs — income ramp
Scenarios — country risk in the cash flows
Probabilities must sum to 100. The downside carries the Saudi-specific risks explicitly: oversupply on rents, leasing delay, cost inflation, exit cap widening. That is how country risk goes into the case instead of the discount rate.
Cash flows — ten years plus exit
Sensitivity — NPV: rent × exit cap rate
Sensitivity — NPV: capex overrun × leasing delay
Return on capital by year vs cost of capital
Post-tax NOI ÷ cumulative capital invested. The year it crosses the cost of capital is the year the case starts earning its keep; that is the number to put in the forecast and hold the owner to.
Group impact — leverage path while the site is built
Group EBITDA and net debt from the Q2 2026 release, annualised. Gross leverage looks high; net of the listed investments it is modest. Both numbers matter: the first is what lenders see, the second is what funds the first.
Investment committee — five members, one case
Each member challenges the case from the live numbers on tab 1. Offline, the challenges are generated from the model and each comes with the answer you should give. Live, each member is a Claude agent with the case data in front of them: they question you, judge your answer in one line, and press again. Rehearse aloud, type your answer, and let them push.
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